Haniyeh killing piles pressure on embarrassed Republican Guard to defend Iran

At around 2 am an explosion shook northern Tehran.

It soon became clear thatย Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, had been assassinated.

Just nine hours previously, Haniyeh had been a key dignitary in the ceremony inaugurating Masoud Pezeshkian asย Iranโ€™sย new president.

With its Palestinian guest now dead, a shocked Iran declared three days of mourning.

The assassination has piled pressure on Iranโ€™s security establishment, whichย once againย sawย Israeliย agents infiltrate the country and stage an attack.

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Abu Huraira reported: The Messenger of Allah, peace and blessings be upon him, said, โ€œThe martyr does not feel the pain of being killed except as one of you feels the pinch of an insect bite.โ€

Source: Sunan al-Tirmidhiฬ„ 1668

Grade:ย Sahihย (authentic) according to Al-Tirmidhi

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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, on 30 July (Iran’s Presidency/Wana/Reuters)

Just a few days ago, the outgoing intelligence minister, Esmeil Khatib, boasted that “the dismantling of Mossadโ€™s networkโ€ in Iran was his proudest achievement in office.

This discrepancy has not been lost on Iranian MPs and other political figures.

“The presence of infiltrators in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh cannot be denied,โ€ said Hossein-Ali Haji Deligani, a member of Iranโ€™s parliament. โ€œWe will give Israel a harsher response than promised.”

Ali Motahari, a prominent former MP, asked a question on many Iraniansโ€™ lips: “How did the Zionists know the whereabouts of Haniyeh as our guest in Tehran?”

Haniyehโ€™s killing has also raised peopleโ€™s suspicions that Ebrahim Raisi, Iranโ€™s president who was killed in a helicopter accident in May, actually died at Israelโ€™s hand.

Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili, the culture minister under Raisi, appeared to suggest as much in a post on X.

“Does this tweet confirm the speculations about the assassination of our dear Raisi?” asked ultraconservative activist Davoud Modarresian in response.

A senior conservative source told MEE that Raisiโ€™s whole family believes he was killed by Israel.

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A huge challenge

Haniyehโ€™s assassination poses a huge challenge to the incoming administration of Pezeshkian, a reformist who shocked the conservative establishment by winning the presidency by promising Iranians a softer, more open approach to foreign and domestic affairs.

Now, not only is Iran poised to seek retribution against Israel, its ally Hezbollah may also escalate the conflict on the Lebanese-Israeli border after the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr hours before the strike on Haniyeh. Hamas, already fighting Israel in Gaza, has also vowed a harsh response.

“Unfortunately, our deterrence has once again faced a setback with the new attack by Israel,โ€ said the former senior official, who is part of Iranโ€™s ruling establishment.

He compared the situation to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, which killed senior IRGC commanders and provoked a massive drone and missile attack on Israel in response.

โ€œSo we have no choice but to respond strongly to restore our deterrence.โ€

Conservatives in Iran will also take an even harder line on any attempts Pezeshkian makes to engage with the West.

A moderate-conservative foreign policy analyst who regularly writes for Iranian media noted that Israel has long opposed dialogue between the West and Iran, โ€œand will use any action to create obstacleโ€.

โ€œThis criminal act is in line with that goal. Hamas’s reaction to this assassination creates a more tense scene,โ€ he told MEE.

The analyst believes Netanyahu wants to create a situation that will ensure Donald Trump wins back the US presidency in November, โ€œor at least prevent Kamala Harris from getting tough with Zionistsโ€.

Another political analyst, Ahmad Zeidabadi, believes Israel was trying to goad Iran with its choice of timing.

“Israel likely could have assassinated Haniyeh in Qatar or Turkey, but deliberately chose Tehran as an entirely provocative act,โ€ he said on his Telegram channel.

โ€œIsrael likely could have assassinated Haniyeh at other times, too, but deliberately chose the night after Dr Pezeshkianโ€™s inauguration to plunge the new government into crisis, confusion, and disorder from the very beginning.”

A reformist analyst close to the new government told MEE that there were parallels with the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the father of Iran’s nuclear programme, in November 2020.

Fakhrizadeh was killed outside Tehran soon after then-President Hassan Rouhani had received a message from the incoming Biden administration that Washington would soon be ready to rejoin the nuclear deal.

โ€œBut soon Israel assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh to provoke the hardliners in Tehran to get more radical against any engagement with the US,” the analyst said.

“The western reaction to this event can either complicate or pave the way for Pezeshkian.”

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